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Elche vs Ath Bilbao

Sat 15 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 36 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Elche win: 26.1%

Draw: 38.1%

Ath Bilbao win: 35.8%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.31

More corners: Ath Bilbao (43.7% home / 56.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 69.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.